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Swaziland Likely To Present Only Minimal Roles For NSAs To Experience A Minimal Increase Over The Next Five Years1_GS.jpg

Executive Summary:

Due to Swaziland's absolute monarchical political system, its resistance to international pressures to democratize and slow progress in efforts to privatizeMinimal_Inc.jpg its economy Swaziland is likely to only demonstrate a minimal increase in the role of non-state actors (NSA) over the next five years. The importance of NGOs concerned with fighting HIV/AIDS will continue to be high in Swaziland; however, such NGOs are unlikely to wield any significant influence to bring about political or cultural change. Swaziland experiences only a minimal degree of violence due to dissent and it is unlikely that the foreseeable future will present an increase in such violence.

Discussion:

Swaziland is Africa's last absolute monarchy. Not surprisingly, Swaziland's Failed State (Failed State Var.= 0) and Democracy Variable (Dem. Var.= 0) are consistent with that of totalitarian regimes. Strong policies to encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) and liberal rights for foreign investors to own Swaziland companies and conduct business within its borders contribute to a score of 1 on the Government-Sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum (Doing Business Var.= 2GS). Such companies include the British owned Illovo Sugar Company, Cadbury Schweppes, etc. (other related information can be found at the Swaziland Business Yearbook). Although Swaziland struggles with corruption, it has taken several steps to combat corruption and demonstrates a significant level of transparency. "Proposed laws and regulations are published in the Government Gazette thirty days prior to a bill’s presentation to Parliament. When bills become law, they are again published in the Gazette ." Additionally Swaziland has set up an anti-corruption unit. These factors contribute to Swaziland's score of 1 on the Government-Sanctioned side of the role potential spectrum (Corruption Var.= 2GS). Swaziland presents a conduit for rebels, smugglers, etc between South Africa and Mozambique. It is likely that any such organized NSA would attempt to maintain low visibility to maintain the integrity of this conduit. Swaziland now represents the world's largest incidence of HIV/AIDS, which has reduced rural labor force to a degree that it can no longer able to feed the country from what is otherwise good land.

Analytic Confidence: 8
Source Reliability: 9



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Overall Score

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Democracy Var.

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Doing Bus. Var.

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Corruption Var.

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Failed States Var.

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Geo Dis- NGOs

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Geo Dis- Bus.

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Geo Dis- Ter Grps.